The Confident Chronicles: October 1, 2024
Cool Charts Explained: Market Returns:
Happy October 1st!
The S&P 500 (the “proxy” we use for the American Stock market) fell for the first week of September. Then it went almost straight up for the last three weeks. Just as predicted in last month’s Confident Chronicles. In fact, there were only four down days in the last three weeks of September.
The market dropped over four percent in the first week and then rose over six percent in the last three weeks.
We will see if the upward market momentum will continue into October or if we will repeat the pattern of early market selloff followed by a rally like the past months.
I will make no predictions as to the direction this time as we have some major factors that can affect the markets in October. The first is we start “earnings season” soon as it is a new quarter. Positive earnings and guidance could propel the market even higher.
However, there is one giant factor that could move the needle on the market in either direction. And that is the presidential election early next month. The markets hate uncertainty.
If the election looks like it will stay as close as it is now, there could be some “risk off” before the end of the month. There may be a lot of cash that decides to sit on the sidelines until we know who is running our country next year.
As of 9am EST today, Future Contributions and Current Allocations (all models) have been updated. (see below for more information).
The Large Cap Categories have continued to outperform, just like last month.
Also, the Core and Growth categories were the big winners for the month.
This shows that investors were willing to take risks in September. This is also reflected by the fact that the S&P 500 nearly went straight up for the last three weeks of September.
It feels good to be writing about a little consistency in the markets for the past two months. It felt like every month prior, we were seeing an absolute free for all.
There were no repeated market leaders, until this month.
When that happens, it makes it hard to find the momentum. It makes it hard to pick winners when every month there are new ones.
So, it was very satisfying to see a little consistency this month.
Hopefully that can continue.
Cool Charts Explained: S&P 500 Chart:
The above S&P 500 chart is what we use to check our “technical” indicators.
Staying with our theme of an “inconsistent” market, you can see how the market keeps moving up, then down, then up.
And then repeats.
I feel that this cycle will continue, but with quicker ups and downs as the election approaches. The markets really don’t care who wins the presidential election. They just want a clean and decisive winner in November, as the markets hate uncertainty.
So, if it looks like it will be a close race leading into November, then I fully expect that this volatility will continue.
My hope is that the elections will be very decisive for the House, Senate and Presidency. If it is drawn out with court battles and uncertainty, then the stock market volatility will surely continue throughout the year.
(This is the exact same commentary from last month. History appears to be repeating)
PLAN CONFIDENCE MODEL UPDATES:
FUTURE CONTRIBUTIONS:
Future contributions are money that is added to your plan with every paycheck.
We monitor the future contributions monthly and are looking to direct these monies into investments that we hope to be “on sale”.
This will allow you to buy more shares in your portfolio.
This month we are advising that you use the following:
· Foreign Large Growth
· Intermediate Government Bond
· Small Growth
This is an optional feature in Plan Confidence and you may or may not receive Future Contribution advice. Please discuss this with your advisor if you have any questions.
The exact amounts you should allocate depend on the model that you are using.
These categories may or may not be available in your plan. If they are not available in your plan, we will recommend the closest available asset class. You can find all substitutions on your “Proxy Page” within your dashboard.
Please log into your Participant Dashboard to see the exact allocations you should be using as of today.
CURRENT ALLOCATIONS - STRATEGIC MODELS:
Current Allocations are the monies currently in your plan.
Making changes to this money is known as a “rebalance”.
Our “Strategic Models” combine the benefits of asset allocation and “buy and hold” strategies. These models rebalance quarterly back to their risk “targets” and remain fully invested through all market cycles.
Our Strategic Models rebalance the first trading day of every quarter.
The exact amounts you should allocate depend on the model that you are using.
The categories we use may or may not be available in your plan.
Please log into your Participant Dashboard to see the exact allocations you should be using as of today.
The Strategic models have changed as of today. Above is a chart of the differences between this quarter’s advice versus last quarter’s. There are some minor changes in reducing exposure in the U.S. market and increasing the amount in the Foreign Large Value category.
We have also eliminated any monies in Inflation Protected Bonds (TIPS) and Ultrashort Bonds and increasing exposure to the Intermediate Core Plus category.
Be sure to login into your Participant Dashboard to see the exact amounts you should be using in your plan.
Our Strategic Models rebalanced today!
You should have received an email at 9am EST letting you know to login to your Participant Dashboard to review the new advice.
CURRENT ALLOCATIONS - TACTICAL MODELS:
Current Allocations are the monies currently in your plan.
Making changes to this money is known as a “rebalance”.
Some plans have trading restrictions on how often you can rebalance the money in your plan. Be sure to know your plan’s restrictions before implementing any strategies.
Our “Tactical Models” combine the benefits of asset allocation and “momentum investing” strategies.
These models rebalance periodically back to their risk “targets” and the targets can be changed at any time given the current market conditions.
These models may go through periods of time while holding larger amounts of cash than the Strategic Models.
Our Tactical Models may rebalance on any given day.
Please be sure to look for an email from support@planconfidence.com letting you know when to make changes.
Also, be sure to keep our “push” notifications “on” if using our app.
The tactical models have been updated today. Be sure to login into your Participant Dashboard to check out the exact advice for your plan.
The above chart shows the differences between the current allocations and the last time they were updated in August. The “Tactical” and the “Strategic” models are now identical as all the cash has been deployed from the Tactical models.
I am hoping that the current market trend continues for at least 30 days before any changes will be required for these models. Many plans have “short term” trading restrictions, which makes it a little more difficult to run a true tactical strategy in an employer’s plan.
Our Tactical Models rebalanced today!
You should have received an email at 9am EST letting you know to login to your Participant Dashboard to review the new advice.
The exact amounts you should allocate depend on the model that you are using.
These categories may or may not be available in your plan.
Please log into your Participant Dashboard to see the exact allocations you should be using as of today.
KEVIN’S COMMENTARY:
The markets have held up much better than I think most people have expected in a presidential election year. This may be because it easier and faster to get in and out positions than ever before. It may be that investors (retail and institutional) know the election is close and are comfortable with it.
Or it may be because there is a big change coming in the very near future.
No one knows. Only time will tell.
And this is why we diversify your assets! Not only because it’s “legally required” for ERISA covered accounts (like 401k accounts), but also because we don’t know what will be up or down or for how long.
So, in attempt to control risk and manage return, we diversify your assets.
But we monitor the changes in the economy and the markets. As sometimes we get prolonged periods of up cycles (“bull”) and prolonged periods of down cycles (“bear”).
The only thing that I know is, every bull market has been followed by a bear market. And every bear market has been followed by a bull market.
We just don’t know how long they are going to last and which categories will lead the markets.
So, we diversify!
And then tell you exactly how to manage your assets given the investment options that your employer has chosen for you.
Model Portfolio Rationale:
Plan Confidence relies on the research and model construction from BlackRock, Inc. (one of the largest asset managers in the world). We use their “Target Allocation ETF Multi-Manager” model and “deconstruct” their allocations back to their asset categories so we can program the Plan Confidence™ Software. We then map those categories as closely as we can to the available investment options that you have in your plan. Below is an excerpt of their most recent Market Review. Please let us know if you would like the full report.
Tide Turning (Real Estate)
The outlook for the $13.2 trillion real estate market is brightening as values broadly start to stabilize after a difficult two years – a decline we had expected. This creates opportunities that go beyond lower interest rates, we think. Sticky inflation makes real estate more attractive medium term. We also see structural changes from mega forces driving demand. We get granular across regions and sectors. Separately, Beijing’s fiscal stimulus signal spurs us to upgrade Chinese stocks.
This update has been written by Kevin T Clark, RF™.
All opinions expressed are those of the author and not that of Plan Confidence Corporation nor any other firm or individual.
Kevin T Clark, RF™ is the CEO and Co-founder of Plan Confidence Corporation.
Kevin is an “ERISA Nerd” and one of only a hundred(ish) Dalbar certified Registered Fiduciaries (RF™) in the United States.
He has been helping hard working Americans invest their money since 1997!
Plan Confidence Corporation is an SEC registered “internet only” investment firm specializing in providing advice to hard-working Americans investing in their employer’s retirement plans (401k, 403b, TSP, etc). They have created proprietary software so hard-working Americans can receive professional, ongoing advice on their employer’s retirement plan from an adviser of their choosing!
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