January says, "watch me stop this market rally with headline risk of killing an Iranian general in Iraq, Iran retaliating with missiles and an impeachment trial." 

February, looking at January with condescending eyes boldly states, "hold my beer!"

If we get another week like the last one, then all of the market gains of 2019 are in jeopardy of going away.  The markets never go up in a straight line.  But this market selloff is none like I've ever seen and I've been an adviser since 1997.  I've seen the "tech wreck" in 2000, the real estate implosion of 2006 and "financial crisis" of 2008.  Financial advisers with 10 years of "experience" or less, are experiencing their first market panic. 

So, here is what I know . . .

Volatility is always expected in an election year.  And there's really only two ways to deal with volatility,  "Strategic Allocations" (don't put all your eggs in one basket) or through "Tactical" management (getting in and out of asset classes).

SHAMELESS PLUG:  At Plan Confidence Corp, we offer both Strategic and Semi-Tactical models.  In fact, our "semi-tactical" models told our clients to get out of equities last week.  Time will tell when we tell our clients to get back in.

So, as March begins, know which strategy you are using and buckle up, as 2020 is going to be volatile year.  If you're not sure how you are managing risk of your investments, talk to your adviser.  Now is not the time to panic, but it is time to have a plan and (more importantly) execute your plan.

Stay confident my friends.  Make it a great March!

Sincerely,
Kevin T Clark, RF

Co-Founder & CEO

FEBRUARY S&P 500 - STOCK MARKET:

Last month I wrote about the challenges the market was experiencing due to "headline" risk.  This is the risk of market moving "news" that dominates the headlines. 

January started up and then went quickly down almost remaining flat. 

February was a roller coaster!  It started moving up and making new records. 

And then WHAM! 

Only a few days of making new highs, the market plummets.  And plummets hard.  The markets hate uncertainty.  And with the uncertainty of the democratic nominee and what the true economic effects of the coronavirus really are, and you get a market sell off. 

Unfortunately, the economic effects of this pandemic look more harmful than first let on, as it is hard to get a true picture of what is happening in China.  It now appears that their factories have been shut down and workers have been idle.  This could be a big disruption for American companies that rely on production of their goods in China (ie Apple, Inc). 

So, February (and the year-to-date) performance of the S&P 500 is down about 8.5%. 

MONTHLY QUIZ:

I thought I would mix it up this month and provide a quiz about titled: HOW MUCH DO YOU KNOW ABOUT COLLEGE PLANNING
 
CLICK HERE to take the quiz.
 
It only takes a few minutes and it will let you know the correct answers at the end. 
 
And I took it and scored a 56% (5 correct out of 9 questions). 

So I challenge you to take the quiz and see if you score higher.  And be sure to email me or post on our Facebook page your score.
Especially if you beat my score. 
I'd love to hear about it!

Plan Confidence - February 2020

If you are using our ongoing, personalized advice service for your 401k / 403b / TSP plan, then you should have received an email and/or "push" notification (if you are using our app) on Monday, February 3rd.

Regardless if you are using our "Strategic" or "Semi-Tactical" models, you were instructed to move your "Future Contributions" to: 

• Commodities Energy

• Emerging Markets Bond

• US Small Value

The exact funds to use, and percentages, will be shown when you log into your account through any browser or the app.  And if your plan does not have a recommended category, then we will let you know the closest investment option available to you in your plan.

All of our clients using the Semi-Tactical models were instructed to move all of their stock holdings into cash last month.  As of the date of this writing, the monies should remain in cash as we monitor the charts to decide when the market selloff is over.

Do not hesitate to let us know if you have any questions about this service. 

And please be sure to let your friends and family know that for less than a dollar a day, they too can receive ongoing, personalized advice for their 401k, 403b and TSP plans!  In light of the recent selloff, they should buy you lunch for providing them this information!

JOKE OF THE MONTH

In honor of St Patrick's Day, here is a joke that will have you Dublin over with laughter.

Q: Why did St. Patrick drive the snakes out of Ireland?

 
A: He couldn't afford a plane ticket!

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