Anyone using the Plan Confidence Tactical Strategies should have received an email at 9am EST letting them know to log in to their Participant Dashboard.

The Stock and Bond holdings have both gone into “sell” (negative) signals for more than three consecutive trading days.  (See charts below):

S&P 500:  Daily Market Research

Intermediate Term Bond (PTTRX):  Daily Market Research

Due to the 3 day “sell” patterns in the charts above our models move 50% to cash equivalents.

You will see below the new model allocations for the four tactical models.

The Future Contributions remain the same for all models and do not need to be changed if done earlier this year.

The last Tactical model change was recently done on 1/2/25, so there may be “short term trading restrictions” for some individuals.  These clients will need to decide if it is worth making the change now, waiting for the restrictions to time out, or to switch to a corresponding Strategic Model which rebalance on a quarterly basis.

Each client should review their situation with their investment adviser on the best course of action as every plan is different and every client situation is unique.

CURRENT ALLOCATIONS  - TACTICAL MODELS:

Current Allocations are the monies currently in your plan. 

Making changes to this money is known as a “rebalance”. 

Some plans have trading restrictions on how often you can rebalance the money in your plan.  Be sure to know your plan’s restrictions before implementing any tactical strategies.

Our “Tactical Models” combine the benefits of asset allocation and “momentum investing” strategies. 

These models rebalance periodically back to their risk “targets” and the targets can be changed at any time given the current market conditions. 

These models may go through periods of time while holding larger amounts of cash than the Strategic Models. 

Our Tactical Models may rebalance on any given day. 

Please be sure to look for an email from support@planconfidence.com letting you know when to make changes. 

The tactical models have been updated today and are fully invested.

Be sure to login into your Participant Dashboard to check out the exact advice for your plan. 

You should have received an email at 9am EST letting you know to log in to your Participant Dashboard to review the new advice.

The exact amounts you should allocate depend on the model that you are using. 

These categories may or may not be available in your plan. 

Please log into your Participant Dashboard to see the exact allocations you should be using as of today.

TACTICAL MODEL UPDATE: (from the 1/2/25 Confident Chronicle)

In 2024 the markets went through extreme volatility like we have not seen in the recent past.  There were many months when the first week of the market was extremely negative, only to be followed by three weeks of positive gains. 

This “whipsaw” effect on the markets wreaked havoc on our Tactical models. 

Since we are giving advice to 401(k) and 403(b) participants, we have always been concerned about short term trading restrictions on many plans.  So, we always had a policy of “holding” our advice for 30 days after recommending changes.

Due to this 30-day hold, our tactical models did not perform well as there were many times where “sell” signals were implemented at the beginning of the month, only to miss the three weeks of positive returns.

So, we have made changes to how we will be running the Tactical Models moving forward.  We will no longer be implementing a 30-day restriction after recommending changes.  Our advice will be true “tactical” advice.

This means that there could be more frequent trading and not suitable for plans with 30-day (or longer) trading restrictions.  This could cause confusion or frustration by your clients as every plan sets their own policies on how frequently your clients can trade.

Our Tactical Models may best be suited for those that have self-directed brokerage windows, Individual K plans or plans without short term trading policies.

Please let me know if you have any questions or comments about how we are looking to enhance the Tactical Models for 2025.

This update has been written by Kevin T Clark, RF™.

All opinions expressed are those of the author and not that of Plan Confidence Corporation nor any other firm or individual.

Kevin T Clark, RF™ is the CEO and Co-founder of Plan Confidence Corporation. 

Kevin is an “ERISA Nerd” and one of only a hundred(ish) Dalbar certified Registered Fiduciaries (RF™) in the United States. 

He has been helping hard working Americans invest their money since 1997!

Plan Confidence Corporation is an SEC registered “internet only” investment firm specializing in providing advice to hard-working Americans investing in their employer’s retirement plans (401k, 403b, TSP, etc). 

They have created proprietary software so hard-working Americans can receive professional, ongoing advice on their employer’s retirement plan from an adviser of their choosing!

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