I wish I had better news as I sit down and right this. But as you already know, the markets have been very “volatile” for the past couple of months. “Volatility” is the term we only use when the market goes down.

We never say a market is “volatile” when it is going straight up.

So, when I say the past month has been very volatile, you can rest assured that I mean that it has gone down.

This is due to uncertainty about tariffs.

Once we get a little more certainty about them, the markets should no longer be as “volatile”.

The past few months show the importance of having a plan for your money. You can’t just “set it and forget it” anymore.

So, hopefully as the tariffs are enacted today (April 1st) we will start to get a little more certainty.

It may be a good time to review your risk tolerance and talk to your adviser if you have any concerns. Be sure to keep your confidence during this time of volatility.

Enjoy this month’s version of the Confident Chronicles!

-Kevin T Clark, RF™ - CEO & ERISA Nerd

Market Returns:

Above is an oversimplification of the U.S. markets.

However, this is what we use to get an overall “feel” of where the markets are.

As you can see, everything (stocks and bonds) was negative for the month.

The markets hate uncertainty, and that’s exactly what we got in March.

Tariffs on. Tariffs off. 25% Tariffs. Retaliatory tariffs.

And no one knows what the effect of the tariffs will be.

They are supposed to start on April 1st.

We will see how companies choose to deal with them. If they think they will be temporary, then they may not raise prices.

If companies think they are here to stay, they will increase their prices to cover the costs of the tariffs and see if they affect their sales.

So, the markets get panicky and thus the main reason we have negative numbers in the stock and bond categories for this month.

Above are the Morningstar “style” boxes showing returns for the size of U.S. stocks (Large, Mid & Small) and the categories showing a stock’s potential (Value, Core & Growth) for the past three months.

As you can see, all the stock categories are negative as nothing is “safe” when there is uncertainty.

The Large Cap stocks are doing the “least bad” which makes sense.

The largest companies out there should be able to figure out how to deal with the tariffs.

Smaller companies could be cripped by them.

And that shows in the Morningstar data above.

Cool Charts Explained: S&P 500 Chart:

Above is the S&P 500 chart for the month of March showing how it lost -6.16%.

As you can see, the S&P sank like a stone for the first 13 days of the month.

And then we saw the market “bottom out” and bounce back up until March 25th when the market reversed course and sank like a stone again.

This is concerning as the market broke below its 200-day moving average on March 7th.

The 200-day moving average is a key technical indicator that the S&P should not be below.

The fact that it broke above the 200 day on March 24th was encouraging.

However, it only stayed above this key line for two days before the selling started again.

This is not good as the S&P needs to figure out a way to claw its way above this line.

And it needs to figure out how to do it soon!

PLAN CONFIDENCE MODEL UPDATES:

FUTURE CONTRIBUTIONS:

Future contributions are money that is added to your plan with every paycheck.

We monitor the future contributions monthly and are looking to direct these monies into investments that we hope to be “on sale” for the next 30 days.

If we are correct, this will allow you to buy more shares in your portfolio.

This month we are advising that you use the following:

· (Bonds) Long Government

· (Stocks) Large Growth

· (Stocks) Technology

“Future Contributions” are an optional feature in Plan Confidence, and you may or may not receive this advice.

Please discuss this with your advisor if you have any questions.

The exact amounts you should allocate depend on the model that you are using.

These categories may or may not be available in your plan. If they are not available in your plan, we will recommend the closest available asset class and label it as a “proxy”.

You can find all substitutions on your “Proxy Page” within your dashboard.

Please log into your Participant Dashboard to see the exact allocations you should be using as of today.

CURRENT ALLOCATIONS - STRATEGIC MODELS:

Current Allocations are the monies currently in your plan.

Making changes to this money is commonly known as a “rebalance”.

Our “Strategic Models” combine the benefits of asset allocation and “buy and hold” strategies. These models rebalance quarterly back to their risk “targets” and remain fully invested through all market cycles.

Our Strategic Models rebalance the first trading day of every quarter.

Strategic Models – New Advice “live” on April 1, 2025

Below are the new allocations for the 2nd quarter versus the 1st quarter and changes highlighted.

All monies have been moved out of the Intermediate Core Bond Category and Infrastructure Category. And monies have been shifted to the Multisector Bond and Large Blend category.

You will see the new advice in your Participant Dashboard on what to change in your portfolio.

Please talk to your adviser if you have any questions.

The exact amounts you should allocate depend on the model that you are using.

These categories may or may not be available in your plan. If they are not available in your plan, we will recommend the closest available asset class and label it as a “proxy”.

You can find all substitutions on your “Proxy Page” within your dashboard.

Please log into your Participant Dashboard to see the exact allocations you should be using as of the last rebalance advice.

CURRENT ALLOCATIONS - TACTICAL MODELS:

Current Allocations are the monies currently in your plan.

Making changes to this money is known as a “rebalance”.

Some plans have trading restrictions on how often you can rebalance the money in your plan. Be sure to know your plan’s restrictions before implementing any tactical strategies.

Our “Tactical Models” combine the benefits of asset allocation and “momentum investing” strategies.

These models rebalance periodically back to their risk “targets” and the targets can be changed at any time given the current market conditions.

These models may go through periods of time while holding larger amounts of cash than the Strategic Models.

Our Tactical Models may rebalance on any given day.

Please be sure to look for an email from support@planconfidence.com letting you know when to make changes.

Tactical Models –Last Updated on 03/02/2025!

The exact amounts you should allocate depend on the model that you are using.

These categories may or may not be available in your plan. If they are not available in your plan, we will recommend the closest available asset class and label it as a “proxy”.

You can find all substitutions on your “Proxy Page” within your dashboard.

Please log into your Participant Dashboard to see the exact allocations you should be using as of the last rebalance advice.

This update has been written by Kevin T Clark, RF™.

All opinions expressed are those of the author and not that of Plan Confidence Corporation nor any other firm or individual.

Kevin T Clark, RF™ is the CEO and Co-founder of Plan Confidence Corporation.

Kevin is an “ERISA Nerd” and one of only a hundred(ish) Dalbar certified Registered Fiduciaries (RF™) in the United States.

He has been helping hard working Americans invest their money since 1997!

Plan Confidence Corporation is an SEC registered “internet only” investment firm specializing in providing advice to hard-working Americans investing in their employer’s retirement plans (401k, 403b, TSP, etc).

They have created proprietary software so hard-working Americans can receive professional, ongoing advice on their employer’s retirement plan from an adviser of their choosing!

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